Betting On Odds On Favourites
This horse racing system simply works by placing the same stakes ( i.e. £10 on each selection ) but it also has some rules, which are pretty straight forward to understand.
The amount of selections you bet on this horse racing system is determined by the odds of the favorite, I have placed a table of odds below for you to show how many selections can be bet upon.
Betting On Short Priced Favourites Some punters will not bet on odds on horses. It must be the fact that any winnings will be less than the stake put on the horse and this to some punters seems 'bad value'. The answer is yes and no. You can make money betting on favorites but only if you are selective. Let's take a look at what that means. Even if you add in a rebate, and you play every favorite in every race, you are going to lose money in the long run. Favorites don't pay enough for you to bet. They will then assign a set of sports betting odds to each team. There is typically a favorite and an underdog. Let’s say the Eagles are having a strong season and the Jets are struggling.
All odds below are in decimals and are the odds of the Favourite in any given race.
Odds of Favourite In decimals Bet On First
Between 3.00 & 4.00 2 Horses
Between 4.00 & 5.00 3 Horses
Between 5.00 & 6.00 4 Horses
Between 6.00 & 7.00 5 Horses
Between 7.00 & 8.00 6 Horses
Let’s just imagine that the first race you wanted to have a bet in is the 2.10 @ Ascot. Simply navigate to that particular race at your chosen, betting exchange, bookmaker website or go down to your local bookies and take a look at the odds/prices that you are being offered.
Now for this horse racing system to work, let’s say for arguments sake that the favourite was being offered @ 5.3. Take a look at the above table and look for 5.3, there you will see that you are allowed to bet on the first 4 horses in the betting market i.e. 1st Favourite, 2nd favourite, 3rd favourite and 4th favourite, making a little more sense now??
The same goes for any price that the favourite has within the odds displayed in the table above.
This horse racing system, called “Level Stake” betting, has been around for “Donkey’s” years but not too many people actually do it, simply because the majority of punters are looking for a BIG win with every bet they place and to be honest they lose almost ALL the time.
Selections process for this horse racing system is very easy to do: if in your chosen race the favorite has odds of 3 at Betfair then you are allowed to place your stakes on the favorite and the second favorite in the betting.
If in this horse racing system you placed say £10 on each one, your total outgoings are £20. If the favorite were to win you would receive back £20 in winnings and your £10 stake money as well, so a total of £30.
If the second favorite were to win at odds of 5, then you would receive back £40 plus your £10 stake money back for a total of £50 return.
If you were to select a big race where the favorite was priced up at 7 on Betfair then you are allowed to place your stakes on the first 6 in the betting.
It is a very simple horse racing system, but highly effective and if done properly can make a very nice second income.
I have personally had winning bets of up to 25/1 although these are very few and far between it’s very nice when it happens.
Level Stakes betting can be used with nearly all races, with just a few exceptions which are listed below.
1. Do not bet in “Maiden” races. I find these to be very unpredictable and results can vary.
Betting On Odds On Favorites This Week
2. NEVER bet in handicap races with over 16 runners, again very unpredictable and there are always much better races to bet in.
3. Never bet in “Apprentice” races, although there are some pretty good apprentice jockeys around you WANT a pro jockey that knows exactly what it takes to win a race.
Another variation of the above horse racing system is to MISS OUT the favourite and use the second favourite as your stating point. This enables you to add more selections and get bigger priced winners.
If you copy how I make my selections below then you will be quids in week after week.
If you decide to place your level stake bets with the favourite included, then this horse racing system is straight forward enough as ANY race that meets the above criteria is fair game but if you wanted to narrow your search down and just find between 2 & 4 races per day to play in, then just copy the following to achieve a VERY high strike rate.
You will need any “run of the mill” newspaper ( I prefer “The Sun” ) that has racing pages in its sporting section.
Plus you will need to register yourself at the http://www.racingpost.co.uk website if you haven’t done already then go do it now, it doesn’t cost anything.
On racing day, to apply this horse racing system simply log onto the racing post website and go through ALL of that days racing, you must mark off ( in your newspaper ) the selection that the racing post gives as its most likely winner.
When you have done that you then look at what your newspaper’s two tipsters go for in that particular race. If ALL 3 ( 2 X newspaper tipsters plus racing post) select the same horse then that COULD be a definite bet. Then simply do this with the newspaper for ALL the races of the day. Don’t be put off at all, it takes about 10 minutes to do, not a lot of time for a horse racing system that could change your financial future.
Once you have done that you need to go to Betfair and simply check the odds for the horse that ALL 3 tipsters have given. If the odds are acceptable with the odds in the table then you have a definite bet and you stake on however many horses that the odds in the grid tell you to.
The other variation of this horse racing system is where you miss out the favourite all together and the selection process for this is much simple and quicker.
Simply miss out all the “Danger” races as described on the previous page then try to find races that have between 12 & 16 runners, especially handicap races because in handicap races horses are allotted different weights to carry, which in effect gives ALL horses the same chance of winning.
Then all you need to do for this horse racing system to work is to get the odds for the SECOND favourite and place your stake money down on as many selections as the table allows you to.
Now you know how easy it is to make your selections, you will now need to know how to make best use of your betting bank.
We will take a £1000 betting bank as an example but you can start with however much you can afford, this horse racing system works for everybody!
Simply divide your betting bank by 100, so for a £1000 bank this figure is £10. So £10 is the amount you should place on your first ever race.
Let’s now say that in your first race you can bet on the first 4 horses, you divide your first bet of £10 by 4, which equals £2.50, so £2.50 is the stake money that you place on the first 4 selections in your first race.
I can just hear you say “Hey, staking a mere £2.50 on a horse, this horse racing system is not going to make me rich!!”
Well, its not and is not meant to either, yet! You should look at this as a long term venture and protect your betting bank as best you can. Dividing your betting bank by 100 gives you 100 losing bets before you go bust and that just is not going to happen.
In the £2.50 example above if the favourite wins then you will win a level stake profit of £2.50 BUT if the favourite loses and an 8/1 shot wins, you will then pick up a nice £12.50 profit.
Then as the days go by your betting bank increases and then so does your initial stake money and soon instead of placing £2.50 on each horse you will find yourself placing £22.50 on each horse, I can see how you start enjoying this horse racing system now!
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: John Anthony is a recognized authority in the PRO gambling world. His worldwide famous Horse Racing System, the Sure2Profit Calculator PRO 1.8, has helped over 1,288 people making up to ?80,000 per year on Tax FREE profits.
Find out how to become one of them here:http://www.sure2profit.com/software.htm
A quick search for betting on favourites on Google throws up hundreds of “fool-proof” systems for making money, which simply require your credit card details and a one-time payment of $100 to read about them. And one of the most common “systems” you will encounter is betting on favourites, because here we find there is some truth behind the lies.
A lot of academic research has been done into the so-called favourite longshot bias in betting markets. All winning betting strategies are based on exploiting market inefficiencies and when it comes to favourites there appears to be rather a large one in place. Put simply, favourites are much closer to “true odds” than longshots.
One major study you will find quoted in lightly researched articles on favourite betting is by two American academics who examined the results of over 6 million horse races in America and found backing favourites lost at a rate of 5.5% while backing from 3/1-15/1 lost at 18% on average.
The good news for bookmakers there is no matter what people bet on they lose, but it’s a significant difference between favourites and longer odds bets. Favourites are priced up more accurately than longshots. It’s also been shown to apply to other markets with particular application to political and novelty markets where it seems the shorter the odds the greater the bias.
Betting Odds Explanation
Favourites in Football
In the last 20 years a number of research papers have been published to see if this applies to football with confusingly mixed results. Some say yes, some say no and some say both. If you were hoping that a simple “always bet on the favourite” strategy was your route to profit, then think again. But there are some key lessons:
- Betting on the favourite is rarely a bad bet
- Shorter priced favourites are often better value than longer priced ones
- You need to do some work of your own
What various academic and recreational research from bettors has found is betting on favourites generally allows you to lose more slowly. This isn’t a great long-term strategy, but as a starting point it at least demonstrates that betting the favourite is rarely a bad bet. As a starting point, losing at a slow rate is a damn sight better than most punters manage.
For some bettors the nature of betting short-priced favourites seems counterintuitive to their notion of “value”. Risk reward is an odd concept, and betting £100 to win £20 on a 1.2 selection doesn’t seem hugely attractive to many, but research has shown this is often a better bet than £100 on a 1.8 shot in terms of expected long-term returns.
A good demonstration of this comes in rugby union, where New Zealand will often be priced at something absurdly unattractive like 1/80 to beat most sides outside the top six. But losses to those teams are extremely rare. In fact the All Blacks have never lost to an international team that isn’t Australia, England, South Africa, France or Wales. Never. How good does your 1/80 look now?
The All Blacks are perennial favourites. Their 2015 World Cup winning team is regarded by many as the greatest rugby team ever assembled
When favourites betting goes bad
But if you are too cavalier with these kinds of stats you can come unstuck as South Africa showed in the Rugby World Cup where they were 1/100 to beat Japan. The Springboks had similar stats to New Zealand, having only lost internationals to 8 teams in their history. The loss to the minnows of Japan was the biggest shock of the tournament, but it should be seen as an exception and not the rule.
There were warning signs including an improving Japanese side a South African side that lost all three of its games in the Rugby Championship including at home to Argentina. And the final and most important point is you can’t just trust blindly in backing short-priced favourites and expect to never be stung for a big loss now and again.
Take the 2015/16 Premier League as an example of how favourites perform on a long-term betting basis. The 2014/15 season threw up a rather conveniently even 100 wins from 150 games where the home side was under 2.0. In other words odds-on to win. This would have given a total profit of £4.85 to a £1 level stakes bet. Pretty good.
The following season, by early February, there were 50 winners from 91 games for a total loss of £13.75 to the same level £1 stakes. The 2013/14 season had 99 winners from 143 games for a season-long profit of £1.21. So it shows that an expected long-term trend can sometimes go wildly off track.
In Conclusion
So what does all this tell us? Well firstly that this is not an exact science and secondly that despite the 15/16 anomaly there is a lot of value to be had in odds on favourites. What it should encourage you to do is go and analyse the huge wealth of stats and betting data that exists for free on the internet and try and find your own conclusions.
Find a data source and play around with the results. Spot a pattern and develop a system that works for you by refining the data and using your own insight into what might make odds-on chances more or less likely to win. But don’t, whatever you do, fall into the trap of thinking a 1.20 bet doesn’t present value.
Top Tips
- Betting on the favourite is rarely a bad bet
- Shorter priced favourites are often better value than longer priced ones
- You need to do some work of your own