NFL Betting Systems: The Definitive Guide to the Top Strategies

How big is the football betting market?

Forget baseball.

Basis for good betting systems Naturally, the basis of every betting system for sports bets is formed by the financial margin, which you would like to have at your disposal. This margin should not be exceeded at any time, or deviate from the thought-out sports betting strategy due to emotional betting (for instance in case of anger or joy). You have to be able to tell the difference between the two if you are going to succeed in sports betting. If you are constantly researching these pointless stats, you might be great for conversation, but you’re going to be a lousy sports bettor. Additionally, make sure your.

• 1 day ago  While Star Sports offers more than 30 different sports to bet on, the market for sports other than horse racing is found to be slimmer than competitors. It does not offer live streaming, but it has a great mobile app, good in-play betting options, and a diverse online casino.
• Create a Betting Bankroll. Your bankroll is crucial because it’s the key to keeping track of the money.

America’s favorite pastime is football.

The proof is in the pudding. And the Vegas sportsbooks. Football is by far the most bet on sport in the United States. To be specific, the Super Bowl.

This past year alone, the American Gaming Association estimated bettors to have wagered upwards of $4.7 billion dollars on the nation’s most-watched sporting event.

Despite an ongoing federal ban on sports betting outside Nevada (and sparingly in certain other states), the majority of that money comes from illegal bets placed outside of the Sagebrush State.

That’s right.

Only $132M of that $4.7B is considered legal.

And yet, betting for the sport continues to increase with each passing year. According to Jimmy Vaccaro, a prominent Las Vegas bookmaker, Americans wager upwards of $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined.

That being said, the majority of bettors fail to turn a profit.

According to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of Beat the Sports Books(Cardoza Publishing 2005), throughout an entire NFL season, “fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit. Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”

Why do most NFL betting systems fail?

Well a standard bet requires bettors to wage $11 for every $10 they want to win. The extra $1 is called the juice.

Were it not for the juice, things might be different.

The average bettor might have a chance at real success. But as it stands, the odds and the money favor the bookmakers. A sports bettor has to select 52.4 percent winners simply to break even. But each year, the average Joe wins only 50 percent of the bets they make.

Treat NFL betting for what it is — a sophisticated network of constantly changing data points pouring through equally sophisticated predictive algorithms —

So it’s an uphill battle for most bettors dipping their toes in the waters of sports gambling.

The trick is to take things seriously.

Sports Betting How To Guide

Treat betting for what it is — a sophisticated network of constantly changing data points pouring through equally sophisticated predictive algorithms — and you might just have a chance at going from square to sharp.

But don’t be overwhelmed.

If you’re reading this, chances are you’re a serious bettor looking to make some well-informed decisions to take your football betting to another level.

Before we get into the fundamentals of NFL betting, let’s first take a look at the basics of our very own predictive wager system.

Our Betting Methodology and System

The Simulator is built based on a predictive model created by a doctor with an extensive background in mathematics, psychology, and operations research.

This individual has worked with multiple professional and collegiate sports organizations, player agents, sports data agencies and a top-ranked fantasy website. His work with professional sports organizations includes optimizing scout travel, in-depth player analysis and lineup configurations.

Correctly predict the winning team 74.33 percent of the time (on average) as compared to the experts who were correct 68.67 percent of the time

Among his greatest innovations was the discovery of neural networks as a powerful tool for sports betting.

A neural network is defined as a computer system modeled on the human brain and nervous system.

Using this technology, the good doctor found that, “the best networks were able to correctly predict the winning team 74.33 percent of the time (on average) as compared to the experts who were correct 68.67 percent of the time.”

While the model was initially developed around NBA betting, it has since been applied to other sports — chief among them, the NFL.

What makes the Sports Analytics Simulator unique is that it relies not on data inputs (statistics) from previous seasons, but on continuous game-to-game updates.

The Simulator’s specific algorithms run through up to forty different stat categories to create the most efficient model possible.

From this model, we derive our picks for each game. And the best part is, our system is a living, breathing predictive model — it possesses machine learning capacities that allow to detect trends and potentials that we mere humans could only dream of finding.

For more information, check out this handy dandy video on how it works.

NFL Betting Systems

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s talk about the fundamentals of NFL Betting. Essentially there are six different ways to bet on the NFL. Let’s run through them shall we?

NFL Spread Bet

The first and most popular form of NFL betting is spread-based. Which is pretty straightforward.

Bookmakers set a spread with a favorite and an underdog. In order for you to win on a bet of this nature, one team must cover the spread — so if the spread is -7 in favor of the Chiefs over the Steelers, the Chiefs must win by seven points or more.

Whereas in order for the Steelers to cover the spread, they must either lose by less than seven points, or win. To make it simpler, the spread gives the underdog a ‘head start’.

In this case, the Steelers have a +7 head start in points to kick off the game. Pretty straightforward stuff.

Now, if you simply want to bet on the winner of the game you’ll want to place a…

Moneyline Bet

Moneyline betting is an equally common form of sports betting as spread bets. The difference is that with moneylines, bookmakers will set lines representing the favorite and the underdog.

Let’s go back to this Chiefs-Steelers matchup.

Let’s say the Chiefs have a favored line of -150 and the Steelers have an underdog line of +125.

What this means is that in order to win a hundred dollars on the Chiefs, you must wage $150.

As for the underdogs, if you wage $100 you will win $125. So that’s that.

NFL Totals Bet

NFL totals betting is rather self-exploratory. Also known as over/under, this form of betting involves placing a wager on the total number of points scored by both teams combined in a game.

Let’s say bookmakers set an over/under of 55 points for the Chiefs and Steelers.

Your job as a bettor is to decide whether the score will be… over or under 55 points.

NFL Prop Bet

A prop bet is a special kind of bet that has nothing to do with the outcome or final score of a game.

Prop bets come in many different forms.

Some of them are player-based — how many yards or touchdowns a specific player scores. Some of them are based in live betting, i.e. if a team scores on a specific drive.

During the Super Bowl you’ll see all sorts of fun prop bets like coin toss wagers.

NFL Parlay Bet

You might have seen a parlay bet featured in the film, Silver Linings Playbook, (or read it in the book), wherein Pat Solitano’s father, Patrizio Sr., places a bet on the Eagles-Cowboys game and the judge outcome of Pat and Tiffany’s dance number in a local dance-off.

In order for Patrizio to win the bet, the Eagles must win their game against Dallas and Tiffany and Pat score 5 out of 10 in their dance competition.

This is what’s known as a parlay bet, wherein various games and outcomes are rubber-banded together into one single bet.

In order for the bettor to win the wager, all outcomes must unfold accordingly. This might involve a handful of other bets such as a totals bet and a moneyline bet.

In the NFL, this is a common form of betting to get more bang for your buck.

NFL Teaser Bet

A teaser bet is a form of parlay that involves a combination of two to ten NFL wagers in which you adjust the point spreads and/or totals in your favor in exchange for a lower payout.

When your teaser includes a point spread, you have the option to decrease the spread for the favorite or increase the spread for the underdog.

When you’re teasing a total, you can increase the under or decrease the over.

Like a parlay, winning the bet is dependent on all of the wagers winning.

Standard teasers are 6, 6.5 and 7-point. There’s also a sweetheart teaser, which offers you the choice to tease a line by 10 or 13 points.

It’s basically a parlay with a little bit of zazz.

The Most Important NFL Betting Stats

Now, knowing the forms of NFL betting is great but without the statistics to back up your wager, you’re S.O.L.

So what are the most important stats for successfully determining winners in an NFL game?

Well, it might not be what you think.

According to a prominent Vegas oddsmaker, one of the most integral statistics for betting the NFL is… duh duh duh dahhh… pass yards per attempt.

Teams that are successful and efficient in their passing game tend to carry the edge over their less successful opponents

In a passer’s league this makes a lot of sense.

Teams that are successful and efficient in their passing game tend to carry the edge over their less successful opponents. Taking this little known or acknowledged stat into account in your handicapping will no doubt help you find success in your waging.

The other big stat to consider in placing your bets is turnovers.

Seems pretty simple.

The team who averages more turnovers per game is likely to give up more scoring opportunities and thus the whole game.

As we’ve said, the Sports Analytics Simulator utilizes up-to-date, real time game-to-game statistics to establish the most accurate predictions week in and week out. So it goes without saying that our model analyzes far more than just turnovers and passing yards per attempt.

Nonetheless, betting in any case involves a level of intuition. Therefore, even if you subscribe to the Simulator, it would behoove you to do your own research. Check out important stats. Take your time with each pick. Choose wisely based on time-tested methods and patterns.

Factors for NFL picks?

Aside from the aforementioned factors, you’ve got to consider other dynamics. For instance, what is the most pivotal quality of any team in the NFL?

I’ll give you a hint. It’s not a good quarterback. Teams with good quarterbacks flounder all the time in the NFL.

If an O-Line is good, the quarterback and running back will look good too. And you better bet your bottom dollar that an NFL team with a solid O-Line is far more likely to go the distance than a team with big holes and weaknesses in their front five

What really matters is the team’s offensive line.

Think the 2016-17 Dallas Cowboys. Sure, they failed to win a Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback and running back. But the majority of their success last season was owed directly to the strength of their offensive line.

How To Be Good At Betting On Sports Betting

If an O-Line is good, the quarterback and running back will look good too. And you better bet your bottom dollar that an NFL team with a solid O-Line is far more likely to go the distance than a team with big holes and weaknesses in their front five.

In order to successfully bet the NFL, you’ve got to consider these more understated and under-appreciated factors — such as a strong O-Line.

You’ve got to take it game by game and know that in this league, fortunes shift in an instant. There’s no perfect formula for effective betting.

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t resources and numbers at your disposal to help you get the edge on oddsmakers.

With that said, let’s explore some of the biggest mistakes that squares (amateur bettors) often make when betting on the NFL.

Biggest mistakes with NFL betting

Money Management

The biggest mistake is money management.

If you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.

This seems pretty obvious but you’d be surprised (or maybe not) at the trouble amateur bettors have with this one.

It’s simple.

Don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose.

That means knowing what your bankroll is for a given season and being disciplined with your money. “Most people with an understanding of football gambling bet between 3 percent and 5 percent of their bankroll, increasing when they win and reducing when they lose,” says Jimmy Vaccaro. “If you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.”

Shop the Numbers

Another big mistake amateurs make is that they don’t account for a variety of numbers.

No sportsbook is exactly the same as another.

Lines, differentials, totals, spreads will all look different depending on where you look. In the NFL, you might not think that .5 points is a significant. But you’d be wrong. So shop the numbers.

Don’t say yes to the first line you see.

Shopping the numbers will give you a better idea of potential outcomes and allow you to make a well-rounded decision on your bets.

What else? Well, let’s start with something basic.

Bet the Underdog at Home

There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home

You might think betting on the favorite is the obvious option every time but you’d be wrong. “There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years. “Teams play inspired ball at home.

Slim underdogs regularly win outright.

Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”

To revisit a favorite example, the Chiefs tend to claim the edge in the majority of their home games, no matter their status on the betting lines.

Why?

Because there’s magic at Arrowhead.

There’s more to lose when you’re playing before 150,000 of your fans’ scrutinizing eyeballs.

Here’s a list of some of the other worst betting mistakes you can make:

1. Chasing your bets
2. Getting vindictive
3. Trying to win back losses
4. Go after big wins to recoup losses
5. Overly-promising wagers.

It’s like a night of heavy drinking. It might sound tempting beforehand. But the next day you’re likely to have some regret.

Remember that betting is a mathematician’s game.

There’s no large place for emotion in this game.

When it comes to the NFL, upon which more bets are placed than any other sport in America, that goes double. The oddsmakers have one job — and that’s to know their shit.

The key to beating them is knowing yours too.

Successful sports bettors are a very rare breed. Statistically, it is very
uncommon to find an individual that is profitable over the long haul on sports
betting. Unfortunately, luck and basic sports knowledge will only get you so
far. These successful bettors tend to possess some common traits that aid them
in being better at sports betting than the rest of the pack.

Below, we’ll go into detail on some of the common traits of successful sports
bettors. After reviewing this list, you might decide to work on some of these
areas in an attempt to be more like them. By fine-tuning some of these skills
yourself, you might be able to become a more successful sports bettor.

Common Traits of Successful Sports Bettors

We’ve compiled a list of some of the most common traits of successful sports
bettors. While not a complete list by any means, this list encompasses the vast
majority of important traits held by these bettors. It’s important to note that
a successful bettor doesn’t necessarily need to have all of these traits, but
they will possess most of them. With that said, let’s get into it!

Knowledge of Sports

This common trait of sports bettors should be pretty obvious, but we wanted
to make sure that we stated it regardless. In order to be successful, sports
bettors need to have a solid knowledge of sports. Without this trait, it is
honestly near impossible to become good at sports betting.

Having a good knowledge of sports allows successful sports bettors to
understand better things that might impact their wagers. Using their knowledge
of sports, these successful bettors have a good understanding of the many
different things that can impact the outcome of sporting events. This allows
them the chance to make better-educated wagers than someone that is not as
knowledgeable about sports.

Strong Math Skills

Betting on sports involves a ton of numbers. From historical performance data
to bookmaker odds, there are lots of numbers to look at and analyze. If you’re
not good at math, it can be tough to understand what all of these numbers mean
to you and your sports betting wagers.

Successful sports bettors tend to have very strong math skills. Using this
skill set, they are able to quickly understand what the data they have access to
means. Often, these types of bettors will then crunch some serious numbers to
help them determine what wagers they want to place. At the end of the day, these
bettors use their strong math skills to quickly analyze and interpret data for
the sake of making quick and educated betting decisions.

Excellent Money Management

Something else that successful sports bettors do well is manage their money.
Without excellent money management skills, it’s hard to make a long and
successful run in sports betting. If you end up betting too much of your
bankroll on single games, it could be detrimental to your bankroll balance. This
is a common mistake that recreational bettors make.

A successful sports bettor will have established strict money management
guidelines for themselves, and they will stick to these no matter what. These
money management lines will determine how much of their total bankroll will be
placed on each wager. Instead of swinging for the fence on each bet, the goal of
a successful sports bettor will be to make money over the long haul.

Evaluation of All Game Factors

A recreational sports bettor will often just look at a handful of factors,
such as which team is favored, when making their betting decision. Even though
there is much more information that could be evaluated, your average sports
bettor tends to stop right there. However, successful sports bettors make an
evaluation of all game factors, not just the basics.

When it comes to successful sports bettors, they are peeling back as many
layers of the onion as possible. While basic stats are great, these bettors go
much deeper in an attempt to evaluate all game factors.

Successful
bettors will consider the health of all players, not just the quarterback and
wide receivers. As well, they’ll often consider things such as team grudges and
teams coming off of big losses and how that might impact the game.

For you to be more of a successful sports bettor, you’ll want to do your best
to evaluate everything you possibly can. It can take a bit to train yourself to
think outside of the box, but this is how you can work to get a leg up like the
professionals do. By thinking differently and looking at all aspects of the
game, you’re more likely to catch something that many others will miss.

Emotional Control

One of the biggest things that separates professional gamblers from
recreational gamblers is that professionals can control their emotions.
Unfortunately, this is not something that too many recreational bettors
understand. Like some other things on our traits of successful sports bettors,
emotional control is something that is easier said than done.

Often, recreational sports bettors let their emotions get the best of them.
If a recreational sports bettor grew up in a diehard Green Bay Packers family,
he’d probably have a hard time not betting on the Packers, regardless of what
the odds or data says. However, a successful sports bettor that also grew up in
a diehard Green Bay Packers family will know when to toss his love for the
Packers aside to make a smart betting decision.

How To Be Good At Betting On Sports

Emotional control is a tough habit to master. However, it will be impossible
to become a successful sports bettor if you can’t set your emotions aside.
Emotions all too often get in the way of making sound betting decisions based
solely on data. If you’d like to become more of a successful bettor, you’ll have
to learn emotional control so that you begin to make decisions based on data as
opposed to your emotions.

Line Shopping

Another common trait of successful sports bettors is that they shop their
lines. Unlike recreational sports bettors that typically rely on just one
sportsbook, these bettors will usually shop their lines across multiple
sportsbooks. By shopping around, the successful bettors can make sure that they
are getting the best bang for their buck.

How To Get Good At Betting On Sports

In many cases, lines tend to be pretty close from one sportsbook to the next.
However, this is not always the case.

What’s nice about line shopping
is that it allows you to get the maximum value from your winning wager.

If you’re not currently line shopping, you should definitely consider it. At
a minimum, we’d suggest that you sign up with at least two different
sportsbooks. When you’re ready to make a wager, be sure to shop the lines
between the two sportsbooks. Your goal should be to find the one offering you
the best pricing. While it might not seem like much on an individual bet basis,
line shopping can add some serious growth to your bottom line as you become
better at sports betting. By not line shopping, you’ll end up leaving money on
the table, and that’s no fun!

Strong Discipline

When it comes to successful sports bettors, another common trait that they
have is a strong discipline. Using this strong discipline, these bettors are
able to stick to a plan and remain focused on the overall long-term goal.
Unfortunately, this is not a trait that the majority of recreational bettors
have.

Strong discipline is key in the grand scheme of things if you want to become
successful at sports betting. Successful sports bettors will utilize strong
discipline in areas such as staking plans, bankroll management, and the overall
wager plan of attack. Emotions can play into making poor discipline decisions,
which is why these bettors tend to have emotional control and a strong
discipline. Without them, it’s too easy to get off track.

Ability to Understand Value

A successful sports bettor will have a good ability to understand value. When
it comes to recreational bettors, they don’t usually analyze the value of a bet.
For them, they’ll just pick a winner and call it a day. Successful bettors,
however, will look at a bet’s overall value to determine if it is worth the
risk.

What successful sports bettors look for are wagers that have a high value. An
ideal wager will have a big potential payout with a relatively small risk. The
goal of these bettors is to not risk a huge amount of cash for a relatively
small overall return.

How To Be Good At Betting

By understanding value, successful sports bettors work to get more bang for
their buck. Unlike recreational bettors that don’t look for value, successful
bettors will come out ahead in the long run by searching for this extra value.
If you’d like to learn more about value, check out our article about
probabilities and value.

Strong Analytical Capabilities

Something else that successful sports bettors typically possess is strong
analytical capabilities. When it comes to sports betting, there is a ton of data
that needs to be analyzed. To be successful, you need to be able to review and
interpret historical data, bookmaker odds, and much more. Without these skills,
it is tough to become successful over the long haul.

Often, successful sports bettors will have created their own systems to help
them analyze all of the data that is important to them. In some cases, they use
programs like Microsoft Excel or other proprietary software that they have
created. The goal of these bettors is to review and analyze as much data as
possible to make the best informed decision they can.

Unfortunately, analyzing data is not something that comes naturally to many
people. Unless you’re a financial analyst or banker, then the odds are that
you’ve not had any formal training in data analysis. What’s nice is that you can
learn to be better at data analysis if you’re willing to take the time to study.
If data analysis is not currently a strong suit, you can find lots of good tips
and research on the internet to help you begin to sharpen your analytical
capabilities.

Best Online Sports Betting

Ability to Take a Long-Term View

Patience is a key trait of successful sports bettors. Many sports bettors
quickly become unmotivated after having a few bad losses in a row. What
differentiates successful bettors is that they are able to step back and take a
long-term view.

Successful sports bettors know that they won’t win every bet. However, sports
bettors set a goal for themselves that they want to win more often than not.
Even in runs of losses, successful bettors understand that there are highs and
lows in what they do.

Overall, a successful sports bettor on average will win somewhere between 50%
and 60% of their wagers.

It is important for you to be able to take a long-term view if you’d like to
become a better sports bettor. Along the way, there will be setbacks. However,
you need to not get discouraged by these setbacks, and continue to hone your
skills. If you give up too quickly and easily, you might be missing out on
something much larger. The sooner that you can train yourself to take a
long-term view when it comes to sports betting, the sooner you’ll be more in
line with successful sports bettors.

Strong Organizational Skills

Another key trait of successful sports bettors tends to be strong
organizational skills. As we’ve discussed previously, there is a ton of data
when it comes to sports betting. These bettors will be able to properly organize
and sort this information so that they can make sense of it. It doesn’t matter
how much data you have access to if you’re not able to sort it and make educated
guesses about it.

Strong organizational skills also come in handy with tracking the bets that
you have placed. Tracking your bets is an important part of bankroll management.
If you’re not able to keep this organized, you might quickly find your bankroll
in trouble. A successful bettor will keep meticulous records of bets placed,
along with tracking any associated wins and losses.

If organizational skills are not a strong suit of yours, you can definitely
work to improve them. We’d suggest that you start by tracking your bets. You can
use something as easy as pen and paper, but we’d recommend using something
computer-based, such as Microsoft Excel. Your ultimate goal should be to record
a history of your sports betting wagers. Using this organized data, you can then
refer to it to review your historical trends to see what worked for you and what
didn’t. As an added bonus, you’ll have a better view of the health of your
sports betting bankroll.

How To Be Good At Betting On Sports Gambling

Flexible, Adaptable, Resilient

To be successful, sports bettors need to be flexible, adaptable, and
resilient. A successful sports bettor will know that things change over time,
and that in turn means that their plans and strategies must also change. Being
flexible and adaptable is key. Those unwilling to change their ways are less
likely to be successful over time.

Resilience is another key trait of successful sports bettors. Sometimes
you’ll feel like the king of the world, and other times you’ll feel like an
elephant has just trampled you. A successful bettor will remain resilient even
in the down times, knowing that you have to take the good with the bad.

If your goal is to become a more successful sports bettor, you should work to
be all three of these things. It’s much easier said than done, but you should
work to become more flexible, adaptable, and resilient over time. By adopting
these qualities, you’ll better align yourself with some of the traits of
successful sports bettors.