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Top 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 predictions The model is high on Brad Keselowski, even though he's a 15-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Daytona odds 2021. He's a target for anyone looking for. O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 (Daytona) NASCAR Preview and Fantasy Predictions By Tom Bowles, 2/20/21, 1:00 PM EST Daytona's road course the first of many changes on the 2021 NASCAR schedule.
- As usual, the 500 was 200 laps on the famed 2.5-mile, high-banked DIS oval. On Sunday, the Cup cars will take to the 3.61-mile, 14-turn infield road circuit at DIS for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 253.
- The Daytona 500 champion also finished 10th in last year's road course race—and has been known as a good road course racer. O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 fades: Tread lightly with Busch.
Jun 10, 2020; Martinsville, VA, USA; NASCAR driver Joey Logano (22) drives during the NASCAR Cup Series at Martinsville at Martinsville Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Steve Helber/Pool Photo via USA TODAY Network
Being a NASCAR Cup Series driver no longer just means mashing the gas and turning left, as road courses continue to dot the annual NASCAR schedule. After 200 laps of last week's Daytona 500, the series shifts to the Daytona International Speedway Road Course for Sunday's 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253. The 3.61-mile layout, which was also the track for last week's Busch Clash, debuted in the NASCAR Cup schedule last season, with Chase Elliott taking home the checkered flag.
Elliott, who won five races last season en route to the NASCAR Cup Series title, will start from the pole and is the 9-5 favorite atop the 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 odds from William Hill Sportsbook. With four road-course victories on his resume, Martin Truex Jr. is right behind at 3-1 on the 2021 NASCAR at Daytona odds board. Before you scour the 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 starting grid and make your NASCAR at Daytona predictions for Sunday, be sure to see the latest 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.
At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2021 NASCAR at Daytona race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected leaderboard for the 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253.
Top 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 predictions
The model is high on Brad Keselowski, even though he's a 15-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Daytona odds 2021. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Keselowski was on the verge of a last-lap pass to win the Daytona 500 last week, only to trigger a wreck with Team Penske teammate Joey Logano and several others to finish 13th.
Keselowski knows how to navigate road courses, too, recording six top-five finishes and nine top-10s on NASCAR Cup Series road courses during his career. Keselowski will start from the 15th position at the Daytona Road Course, a prime spot for him to move through the pack. Full of value and plenty fast in his No. 2 Ford, Keselowski has a strong chance of hitting big for your 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 bets.
And a massive shocker: Denny Hamlin, one of the Vegas favorites at 10-1, stumbles big time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 field. Hamlin made a valiant attempt at becoming the first driver in NASCAR history to win the Daytona 500 three years in a row, leading a race-high 98 laps before finishing in fifth place.
However, Hamlin hasn't had much luck on road courses, winning just once in 32 career starts. He did finish second on the Daytona Road Course last season, but more recently fell back to sixth after starting third at the 2021 Busch Clash.
How to make 2021 NASCAR at Daytona picks
The model is also targeting four other drivers with NASCAR at Daytona odds 2021 of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all the NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 leaderboard, all from the model that nailed Hamlin's win at the 2020 Daytona 500.
2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 odds
Chase Elliott 9-5
Martin Truex Jr. 3-1
Denny Hamlin 10-1
Ryan Blaney 14-1
Kyle Larson 14-1
Brad Keselowski 15-1
Kyle Busch 15-1
Video: Highlights: Gibbs wins Xfinity Daytona road race (NBC Sports)
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A.J. Allmendinger 17-1
Kevin Harvick 18-1
Joey Logano 18-1
William Byron 20-1
Alex Bowman 28-1
Kurt Busch 35-1
Aric Almirola 40-1
Christopher Bell 50-1
Chase Briscoe 60-1
Michael McDowell 60-1
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Matt DiBenedetto 60-1
Ryan Newman 100-1
Chris Buescher 100-1
Austin Dillon 100-1
Ross Chastain 100-1
Bubba Wallace 100-1
Tyler Reddick 100-1
Erik Jones 125-1
Justin Haley 125-1
Cole Custer 125-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 175-1
Ryan Preece 300-1
Daniel Suarez 300-1
James Davison 500-1
Anthony Alfredo 500-1
Ty Dillon 500-1
Cody Ware 2000-1
Corey Lajoie 2000-1
Josh Bilicki 2000-1
Timmy Hill 5000-1
Scott Heckert 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1
As I lay down my value bets for the 2020 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500, I can’t pretend to know exactly what’s on your mind.
But you might feel as though you missed out on a great opportunity to make serious money last weekend at Kentucky, right? But come on — did anyone really see Cole Custer winning that race? I didn’t. Neither did the oddsmakers at the top NASCAR betting sites.
Anyway, Custer will have a lot of attention from the gambling public this week, but as my beloved late grandmother once told me, lightning never strikes twice in the same place.
Unfortunately, she was hit by lightning not long after saying that and… yeah, I’ll stop right there. That was clearly a joke.
What isn’t a joke is Aric Almirola’s chances at the Texas Motor Speedway this weekend. He is one of my NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 value bets on merit, and I think he could do a decent job.
As for my four remaining sleepers? Well, read on, and all will be revealed.
Almirola might not have a race win to his name since Talladega in October 2018. But as of late, the Florida native has been in very impressive form. Odds of +2200 from Bovada are, therefore, worth a look.
Almirola has finished third in three of the last six races, as well as fifth in two others from that same six. An 8th-place finish at Kentucky last week wasn’t as impressive, but that was just a crazy event in general.
To the point, Almirola is one of my sleepers for the 2020 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. Why? Well, he has been up there with the best of them over the past six races and is well worth considering for a top-five finish, at least.
While the Stewart-Haas man has failed to win in Texas in 18 starts, he finished 2nd behind Kevin Harvick at the 2019 AAA Texas 500 in November.
Worth a shot? I think so.
Jimmie Johnson +2200
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Johnson has seven wins from 33 starts at the Texas Motor Speedway, making him the most successful active driver on this track.
The NASCAR Cup Series legend is set to retire at the end of the current campaign and is still chasing his first win of 2020. Johnson has featured on my list of value picks and sleepers a few times this season, but his third-place finish at Bristol has been his best result to date.
Can he get the win here? It’s unlikely, I’ll give you that. But with his track record here, anything can happen. His last win here came in 2017’s version of this race, and he also finished 5th in last year’s race.
Johnson is definitely being slept on. At odds of +2200, he could be someone to take a closer look at ahead of Sunday’s event.
With an average finish of 9.43 from seven starts at “The Great American Speedway,” Jones’ odds of +2700 look interesting.
From his last five races here, his worst finishing position was 10th. That was in the November race in 2019. Prior to that, Jones clocked in at 4th in three consecutive starts. That is a pretty impressive return, in anyone’s book.
Jones has been up and down this season — when he has been good, he has been very good; when he has been bad, he has been, well, underwhelming, to say the least.
The 24-year-old placed 5th at Talladega and 3rd at Pocono, but the three other races from his last five have been disappointing. Can he turn things around on Sunday? Sure. What’s more, he will be fired up, having watched rookie Cole Custer take the checkered flag at Kentucky last weekend.
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William Byron +3500
Byron has four Cup Series starts at Texas, finishing 17th, 6th, 16th, and 10th, stretching back to his rookie season in 2018. An average finishing position of 12.25 might look impressive, but it’s not a lot to go by considering his relative inexperience here.
Still, this is a driver that has the capability to surprise on Sunday. On recent form, the 22-year-old is hardly the most impressive driver in the Cup Series. But he is young and developing and is well worth keeping an eye on.
I’m not confident in Byron’s chances of winning here. But what I will say is that he does offer value for a top-ten finish. I could be wrong — Byron might come out of the traps like a possessed greyhound, but I’ll be conservative here and pick him to finish anywhere between 6th and 12th.
You’ll be taking a punt on Byron, but his odds are worth pocket change.
Finally, we have Matt Kenseth. Here is a guy that should not be underestimated ahead of Sunday’s race.
Kenseth is great value to win the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 — he has two wins from 30 starts at Texas and a very impressive average finish of 9.47 in that timeframe. Can Kenseth win this race? Well, I think he has a great chance of putting in a strong performance.
A multiple-winner at Texas, Kenseth is still being slept on by many NASCAR bettors because of his age and recent form. Yes, he was drafted in to replace Kyle Larson following time away from the big time, but he has turned the clock back in recent weeks.
11th and 12th at the Pocono weekender were impressive, but 2nd at Indianapolis was a real indication that there is still talent there. I’d be surprised if he won this race, but it wouldn’t shock me to see him finish in the top three.
Wrap Up
Cole Custer’s remarkable win at Kentucky last week has led to plenty of NASCAR bettors trying their hands at backing the next big money winner.
And while I’m not exactly confident in saying that the winner of the 2020 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 will come from one of the guys above, it could. What’s more, these five represent value in terms of the betting odds the bookies are handing out.
As usual, it’s your call. We’ll catch up ahead of next week’s race in Kansas and see what’s what, so make sure to bookmark our blog for more news, odds, bets, and picks ahead of the remaining Cup Series races.